What do independent films such as The Farewell (A24), The Peanut Butter Falcon (Roadside), Downton Abbey (Focus), Honey Boy (Amazon), Waves (A24), Hustlers (STX), Uncut Gems (A24), Judy (Roadside), A Hidden Life (Fox Searchlight), The Lighthouse (A24), Booksmart (Annapurna) and The Last Black Man in San Francisco (A24), and big studio films like Joker (Warner Bros.), Little Women (Sony), Ford v Ferrari (Fox), Just Mercy (Warner Bros.), Queen & Slim (Universal), A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony), Us (Universal) and Avengers: Endgame (Disney) share in common?
They all have passionate champions, but — either because they have divided viewers or have not yet been seen by enough Academy members — they currently do not appear to be assured of Oscar recognition. Their fates are likely to be sealed over the…