Innholdsfortegnelse for November/December 2025 i Baseball America

AN ANALYTICALLY INCLINED LOOK AT THE GAME Future value is often in the eye of the beholder, especially when it comes to projecting the future value of prospects and young major leaguers. That’s why we asked three of our writers to identify the best bets for future success among this year’s graduated National League rookies. To do so, JJ Cooper (JJ), Matt Eddy (ME) and Geoff Pontes (GP) took part in an informal 30-pick draft. The goal was to identify players with the highest perceived peak value and likelihood of achieving it. Eligible players are those who lost rookie status in 2025 by exceeding 130 career at-bats, 50 career innings or 45 career days of active MLB service. Big leaguers who retain rookie status in 2026, including Bubba Chandler, Bryce…

 When we rolled out BA Grades in 2012, we described the addition as the biggest change to the Prospect Handbook since we first published the book in 2001. Now, it’s time for a refresh. This year, we’re making the biggest tweak to the process since BA Grades debuted. Details will follow in a moment, but to summarize our goal: We’re trying to reset the base-line for how we account for risk to more accurately reflect what we are attempting to convey. We casually refer to them as “BA Grades,” but in reality our grades have always had two vital components: a future role grade and the like-lihood of achieving that grade. The number component is an attempt to summarize the likely projected role of a prospect on the familiar 20-80…

1 EDUARDO QUINTERO OF HIT: 60. POW: 55. RUN: 55. FLD: 55. ARM: 55. BA Grade: 60. Risk: Average. Adj: 50. Born: September 16, 2005. B-T: R-R. HT: 6-1. WT: 175. Signed: Venezuela, 2023. Signed by: Cristian Guzman/Andres Simancas. TRACK RECORD: Quintero signed with the Dodgers in 2023 as a catcher but quickly shifted to center field because his speed and athleticism would have been wasted behind the plate. The move paid dividends in short order, and Quintero immediately began signaling that he was one of the system’s top talents. His exploits led to championships in the Dominican Summer and Arizona Complex leagues in each of his first two professional seasons, and he ranked as the No. 1 prospect in the ACL in 2024. Quintero’s stock continued rising in 2025, when…

1 NOLAN McLEAN RHP FB: 60. CB: 60. SL: 60. CH: 55. SW: 70. CTL: 50. BA Grade: 65. Risk: Average. Adj: 55. Born: July 24, 2001. B-T: R-R. HT: 6-4. WT: 214. Drafted: Oklahoma State, 2023 (3rd round). Signed by: Scott Thomas. TRACK RECORD: When the Mets drafted McLean in the third round in 2023, he was primarily a righthanded reliever and power-hitting outfielder for Oklahoma State. He continued as a two-way player in pro ball until the second half of 2024, when he dropped hitting after reaching Double-A Binghamton. Focusing his energy solely on pitching paid dividends in 2025, when McLean raced through Double-A with a 1.37 ERA in five starts, reached Triple-A Syracuse on May 9 and led all minor league pitchers with 38 strikeouts in July.…

1 JJ WETHERHOLT SS HIT: 70. POW: 55. RUN: 55. FLD: 55. ARM: 55. BA Grade: 65. Risk: Mild. Adj: 60. Born: September 10, 2002. B-T: L-R. HT: 5-10. WT: 190. Drafted: West Virginia, 2024 (1st round). Signed by: TC Calhoun. TRACK RECORD: Wetherholt played for Andy Bednar at Mars Area High outside Pittsburgh and was teammates with Andy’s son Will Bednar, the Giants’ 2021 first-round pick, before committing to West Virginia. After hitting .308 as a freshman in 2022, Wetherholt followed it up with an outstanding sophomore season at WVU in which he hit .449/.517/.787 and led the nation in batting average. After an injury-plagued junior season, Wetherholt was drafted by the Cardinals seventh overall and signed for $6.8 million. He was assigned to Double-A Springfield out of camp…

1 ELI WILLITS SS HIT: 55. POW: 50. RUN: 60. FLD: 55. ARM: 55. BA Grade: 60. Risk: Average. Adj: 50. Born: December 9, 2007. B-T: B-R. HT: 6-1. WT: 180. Drafted: HS—Fort Cobb, OK, 2025 (1st round). Signed by: Jacorey Boudreaux. TRACK RECORD: Willits was originally slated to graduate from Fort-Cobb Broxton High in 2026, but the Oklahoma prep reclassified to become draft eligible in 2025. Doing so made him one of the youngest players available in his draft class, and when the Nationals selected the shortstop first overall, he became the youngest player ever drafted 1-1 based on baseball age. Willits was 17 years, six months and 21 days old on June 30 of his draft year, younger even than the youngest 17-year-old top overall picks such as Ken…

FORMER BALLPLAYERS REFLECT ON PRO SUCCESS AND FAILURE Home is where the heart is, they say. In the case of Zach Lutz, that adage was true. In 2004, Lutz was the senior third baseman for Governor Mifflin High outside Reading, Pa., when he had to decide between prominent Division I programs such as Notre Dame, South Carolina and Stanford—and their state-of-the-art facilities and annual Omaha aspirations—or staying home to attend Division III Alvernia. Alvernia had gone a respectable 27-17 in 2004, but the real draw was that it was coached by Zach’s father Yogi. “My mind was always set on going to play for my dad,” Zach Lutz said. “That’s what I had my trust in. He knew my swing better than anybody.” As an Alvernia freshman, Lutz teamed with…

1 SAL STEWART 1B HIT: 65. POW: 50. RUN: 30. FLD: 40. ARM: 30. BA Grade: 55. Risk: Average. Adj: 45. Born: December 7, 2003. B-T: R-R. HT: 6-1. WT: 224. Drafted: HS—Palmetto Bay, FL, 2022 (1st round supplemental). Signed by: Andrew Fabian. TRACK RECORD: A product of South Florida powerhouse Westminster Christian, Stewart has been one of the Reds’ best hitting prospects since they drafted him 32nd overall in 2022. He has trained with and learned from Manny Machado for years, and when Stewart made it to the major leagues Machado gave him a Rolex as a congratulatory gift. In 2025, Stewart evolved into a more complete player by starting to learn how to pull the ball more consistently to get to his long-untapped power potential. Stewart’s 25 home…

1 THOMAS WHITE LHP FB: 60. SW: 70. CH: 65. CTL: 45. BA Grade: 70. Risk: High. Adj: 55. Born: September 29, 2004. B-T: L-L. HT: 6-5. WT: 240. Drafted: HS—Andover, MA, 2023 (1st round supplemental). Signed by: Alex Smith. TRACK RECORD: The top high school lefthander in the 2023 draft class, White signed with the Marlins for a well over-slot $4.1 million as the 35th overall pick. He wasted no time making an impact in his first full pro season, striking out nearly 30% of hitters with a 2.81 ERA across two Class A levels in 2024. He remained on his meteoric trajectory in 2025 with a 2.31 ERA and dominant 38.6% strike-out rate while advancing from High-A Beloit to Triple-A Jacksonville. Control remains White’s lone blemish. His walk rate…

1 AIDAN MILLER SS HIT: 55. POW: 55. RUN: 50. FLD: 60. ARM: 60. BA Grade: 65. Risk: Average. Adj: 55. Born: June 9, 2004. B-T: R-R. HT: 6-2. WT: 205. Drafted: HS—Dunedin, FL, 2023 (1st round). Signed by: Bo Way. TRACK RECORD: Miller’s amateur history is long and decorated. He was a part of three of USA Baseball’s National Teams, and he hit .423 as a member of the 18U squad. That track record of success led the Phillies to call Miller’s name in the first round of the 2023 draft despite a broken left wrist that sidelined him for the bulk of his senior season at Florida’s New Port Richey High. So far, the risk has been well worth the reward. Miller has improved in every area and now…

1 ETHAN SALAS C HIT: 45. POW: 45. RUN: 45. FLD: 70. ARM: 60. BA Grade: 55. Risk: Average. Adj: 45. Born: June 1, 2006. B-T: L-R. HT: 6-1. WT: 185. Signed: Venezuela, 2023. Signed by: Luis Prieto/Trevor Schumm/Jake Koenig. TRACK RECORD: The top prospect in the 2023 international signing period, Salas’ $5.6 million bonus was the highest in the class. He made his pro debut that same season with Low-A Lake Elsinore, but the Padres got everyone’s attention when they promoted the then-17-year-old to High-A Fort Wayne and then Double-A San Antonio. Salas spent the entirety of the 2024 season with Fort Wayne, where he hit .206/.288/.311 with 33 extra-base hits and 10 stolen bases. He proceeded to play in the Arizona Fall League with Peoria and was named an…

MAKING SENSE OF SOMETIMES DENSE ANALYTICS IN BASEBALL Hitting the ball harder creates better results. It also tends to create more power, which is one of the most important areas where a prospect can improve. While exit velocity gains in the major leagues are typically minimal, prospects at all levels of the minor leagues make considerable power jumps each season. Being able to identify these improvements and explain them with data is important. With that in mind, we highlight 25 players who saw substantial gains in 90th percentile exit velocity in 2025 when compared to 2024. It’s important to note the majority of these players competed in the Rookie complex leagues or lower levels this season. That’s not surprising considering these levels are typically where young hitters see the most…

1 CAM CAMINITI LHP FB: 60. SL: 55. CH: 55. CTL: 55. BA Grade: 60. Risk: High. Adj: 45. Born: August 8, 2006. B-T: L-L. HT: 6-2. WT: 195. Drafted: HS—Scottsdale, AZ, 2024 (1st round). Signed by: Anthony Flora. TRACK RECORD: Caminiti was the top-ranked high school pitcher in the 2024 class and signed with the Braves for $3,553,800 as the organization’s first pick at No. 24 overall. A former two-way player with impressive raw power in high school, Caminiti is now a full-time pitcher and turned in an electric 2025 campaign, primarily with Low-A Augusta. He missed two months of the season with forearm tendinitis. He got on the mound in May, threw a handful of tuneup games in the Florida Complex League, then posted a 2.08 ERA and 31.9%…

1 ETHAN HOLLIDAY SS HIT: 50. POW: 65. RUN: 40. FLD: 50. ARM: 55. BA Grade: 60. Risk: High. Adj: 45. Born: February 23, 2007. B-T: L-R. HT: 6-4. WT: 210. Drafted: HS—Stillwater, OK, 2025 (1st round). Signed by: Jesse Retzlaff TRACK RECORD: Holliday was viewed as a potential No. 1 pick through much of the lead-up to the 2025 draft. But when the first three teams passed, he wound up coming home, in a sense, to the Rockies. Colorado drafted Ethan’s father Matt Holliday back in 1998, while his younger brother Jackson Holliday was the No. 1 overall pick in 2022 and is currently the Orioles’ second baseman. With those bloodlines, Ethan has long been on the radar of scouts, first drawing attention as a freshman at Stillwater High in…

1 JESUS MADE SS HIT: 70. POW: 60. RUN: 60. FLD: 50. ARM: 60. BA Grade: 70. Risk: Average. Adjusted: 60. Born: May 8, 2007. B-T: B-R. HT: 6-1. WT: 194. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2024. Signed by: Julio De La Cruz. TRACK RECORD: The 2024 international signing class will have a major impact on the Brewers for years to come. The biggest bonus the Brewers paid that year went to Venezuelan shortstop Jorge Quintana, who signed for $1.7 million, then was traded to the Padres in 2025. Their next two highest bonuses went to a pair of Dominican shortstops, Jesus Made ($950,000) and Luis Peña ($800,000), both of whom have become two of the best teenage prospects in the game. Made in particular has the look of a future star. After…

1 KONNOR GRIFFIN SS/OF HIT: 60. POW: 70. RUN: 70. FLD: 60. ARM: 70. BA Grade: 75. Risk: Average. Adj: 65. Born: April 24, 2006. B-T: R-R. HT: 6-4. WT: 225. Drafted: HS—Flowood, MS, 2024 (1st round). Signed by: Darren Mazeroski. TRACK RECORD: Griffin was the most decorated high school player in the 2024 draft, winning High School Player of the Year after a senior spring in Mississippi in which he hit .559 and stole 85 bases. The Pirates drafted him ninth overall that July and signed him for $6,532,025, but even they couldn’t have anticipated how quickly he’d emerge as the No. 1 overall prospect and the 2025 Minor League Player of the Year. The 19-year-old hit .333/.415/.527 with 21 homers and 65 steals across 122 games, beginning the year…

1 BRYCE ELDRIDGE 1B HIT: 40. POW: 70. RUN: 30. FLD: 40. ARM: 55. BA Grade: 65. Risk: Average. Adj: 55 Born: October 20, 2004. B-T: L-R. HT: 6-7. WT: 240. Drafted: HS—Vienna, VA, 2023 (1st round). Signed by: John DiCarlo. TRACK RECORD: When he was a two-way player in high school, Eldridge’s future appeared to be on the mound. Given that he stands 6-foot-7 and threw 96 mph, that seemed reasonable. Then he started crushing baseballs, and his path to the big leagues shifted to the batter’s box. He swatted eight home runs for USA Baseball’s 18U National Team, and the Giants drafted him in the first round in 2023. He signed for $3,997,500. In his first full season, Eldridge was electric. The first baseman rocketed from Low-A to…

Two-time Red Sox all-star left fielder Mike Greenwell died of thyroid cancer on Oct. 9 in Boston. He was 62. Greenwell played his entire 12-year MLB career with the Red Sox and spent one season with Hanshin in Japan in 1997 before retiring. Boston drafted Greenwell in the third round in 1982 out of high school in North Fort Myers, Fla., and his Florida upbringing helped earn him the nickname “Gator.” Greenwell received MLB cups of coffee in 1985 and ’86 before earning a regular role for the 1987 Red Sox, alongside fellow rookie phenom outfielder Ellis Burks. As a 23-year-old rookie, Greenwell batted .328/.386/.570 with 19 home runs and 31 doubles in the supercharged 1987 offensive environment. He struck out just 40 times in 125 games and finished fourth…