Innholdsfortegnelse for June/July 2024 i Baseball America

Twenty-four. Few players embody a jersey number quite like Willie Mays. The number 24 will forever be associated with “The Catch,” Mays’ improbable, over-theshoulder grab of Vic Wertz’s drive during Game 1 of the 1954 World Series. Mays’ No. 24 inspired generations of ballplayers who followed. Rickey Henderson wore it. So did Barry Bonds and Ken Griffey Jr. It will forever be a sacred baseball number, like Jackie Robinson’s 42 or Roberto Clemente’s 21. And with good reason. Mays has a strong case as the greatest player in MLB history. He is certainly the most well-rounded. Mays hit .301 for his career and amassed 3,293 hits. When he retired, his 660 home runs trailed only Babe Ruth for the most ever. He won 12 Gold Gloves, the most of any…

The pitch timer and other new rules have sped up the major league game. Now, player development timelines appear to be following suit. Four first-round picks from last year’s draft have already reached MLB: Pirates righthander Paul Skenes, Rangers outfielder Wyatt Langford, Angels first baseman Nolan Schanuel and Braves righthander Hurston Waldrep. That may not sound noteworthy compared with other sports, but by baseball standards, it’s rapid transit. The fast-track theme should continue with the 2024 draft class, in which the top eight prospects are collegians, as are 17 of the top 20. Many of the top talents have the performance and pedigree to ease their transitions to pro ball. At Baseball America, we don’t have all the answers, but we ask the right questions of scouts and industry sources.…

The NCAA alters and regulates game equipment, such as bats and balls, with regularity. Playing styles change and evolve. These factors make it challenging to place players’ raw numbers in context. Case in point: The Southeastern Conference OPS was .894 this year, one of the highest in the nation. Just 10 years earlier, the SEC mark was .733, lower than 25 other Division I conferences. Over the course of a decade, the conference’s OPS increased by 161 points, and as the number of runs increases, the value of each individual run decreases. Put another way: A run created in a conference with a 5.00 ERA does not equal a run created in one with a 3.23 ERA. Those are the actual ERAs for the SEC in 2024 and 2014. One…

Major league organizations feel like they have a handle on college baseball’s new run environment when projecting hitters. They are much less certain how to analyze that impact on college pitchers’ traditional statistics. “The toughest thing is how to look at pitching performance in this environment, especially when pitches that score well on Stuff+ models are getting hammered,” one analyst said before citing the often inconsistent accuracy of TrackMan and other tracking technology. The solution for many clubs is to prefer one type over the other, either the strong college performer with pedestrian stuff or the erratic performer with high pitch quality and projection. There is no clear consensus in this regard. More progressive front offices tend to weigh stuff more than results. Teams that are successful with this approach…

Amid the chaos of the draft, there is one constant. College pitchers are always in demand at the top of the board. A total of 127 of them have been drafted with top 10 overall picks since 1981, the year Baseball America launched and also the first year in which more collegians than high schoolers were drafted in the first round. Compare that to players selected from other draft demographics with top 10 overall picks: ■ 116 college hitters ■ 110 high school hitters ■ 68 high school pitchers ■ 9 junior college or other So it’s not a matter of if a college pitcher will be drafted early this year. It’s only a matter of when. The two names mentioned consistently as potential top five overall picks are Arkansas…

MLB will conduct its 60th draft this year. In six decades of draft history, California, Florida and Texas have produced the most first-round picks out of high school. In the past 25 years, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania have taken huge strides in terms of first-round prep talent. Yet, even with all those draft decision points, all those miles traveled by scouts and all those bonus dollars, there remain five U.S. states from which not a single high school player has ever been drafted in the first round. Those states are Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont and West Virginia. Four of those states—Alaska, N.D., S.D. and Vt.—have never had a first-rounder of any stripe, high school, college or junior college. West Virginia University has two first-round picks in program…

Baseball America compiles its draft rankings through year-round conversations with scouts, front office officials and coaches. Our rankings are based on our assessments of players’ talent, not their signability or where we believe they will be drafted. All overview capsules written by Carlos Collazo. Scan this code to view the BA 500—which ranks the top 500 draft prospects—at BaseballAmerica.com.…

In a summer traveling around the most prestigious high school showcases and to Taiwan with USA Baseball’s 18U National Team, the most valuable lesson Konnor Griffin learned is to put his headphones in. The headphones are a metaphor. He is not physically inserting AirPods, in this case, but the results are very much real. Griffin was in the midst of a rare slump early last summer, suffering a difficult 2-for-12 weekend while he was trying to solidify his status as a top 2024 prospect and secure a spot on Team USA. He did not feel like himself in the batter’s box. Back home with his father, he regained that feeling and did everything he could to keep it. “I was letting too many people mess with my mind a little…

Added bulk, a new pitch and innovative side work helped young Mets righthander Jonah Tong break out at Class A. PAGE 82 Pintar Is Finally Healthy And Hitting For the past three years, outfielder Andrew Pintar has alternated between suffering an injury and going through rehab, a vicious cycle in which the 23-year-old has seemingly spent more time in the training room than on the baseball field. It is what has made his start to this year at High-A Hillsboro so sweet. Pintar was showing the promise the D-backs saw when they drafted him in the fifth round out of Brigham Young in 2022. Through 57 games in the Northwest League, he hit .304/.403/.516 with nine home runs and 17 stolen bases. He has also continued last season’s transition from…

Prior to this year, the Guardians had never picked higher than second in the draft. Now, thanks to the bouncing of a few ping pong balls in the second-ever MLB Draft Lottery and a provision in the Collective Bargaining Agreement, Cleveland picks first overall this year—despite having just the 10th-worst record in 2023. The lottery took place at the Winter Meetings in Nashville last December. Of the 1,001 different ping pong ball combinations, the Guardians had just 18 winning ones. As was true with every team with long odds in the lottery, they had a rooting interest in seeing high numbers pop up. The first ping pong ball was an eight. Fifteen seconds later, the ping pong ball that climbed to the top was 14. The third ping pong ball…

The Nationals briefly “won” the draft lottery. But they could never actually win it, so they didn’t. It’s complicated. The Nationals were not eligible for a top-six lottery pick this year because they won the lottery in 2023, picking second overall. As a revenue-sharing payor, they are not allowed to have back-to-back lottery picks. MLB uses 14 numbered ping pong balls in an air hopper to select the lottery winners. They couldn’t hand out the Nationals’ number combinations to the other eligible lottery teams, because there was no way to do so that would not change the odds of winning for those teams. So the Nationals’ number combinations were still able to be selected. If they were, MLB would have a do-over. The Nationals’ combo of 3-9-11-13 came up the…

Final preparation for the 2024 draft entered the home stretch as this issue went to press. With about four weeks to go until the Guardians make the first pick, the industry buzzword was “deals.” Many wondered how various clubs would view the draft slot values in what is a muddled top of the class and below-average group overall. These factors hinted at the strong possibility that the first round would feature many under-slot deals, potentially even inside the top 10 picks. This strategy helps teams create signing leverage among their preferred targets, while also allowing teams to spread their money around by going over slot to sign players drafted in later rounds. This year, the slot values have increased by 8.7% compared to 2023, and the No. 1 pick carries…

In the 2024 draft class, Konnor Griffin and Bryce Rainer are outliers. Griffin is the High School Player of the Year and top-ranked prep prospect this year. He will try to continue reshaping a pessimistic industry narrative about Mississippi high school hitters—a narrative that 2015 supplemental first-rounder Austin Riley and 2020 fifth-rounder Colt Keith are in the process of rewriting. “He’s an elite athlete,” said one evaluator of Griffin, a 6-foot-4, 210-pound do-it-all shortstop and center fielder who’s also no joke on the mound. “Such a high ceiling. Has there been a guy that big and athletic in high school in the last 10 years? Five tools. He’s everything. It’s pretty special. His sixth tool is good, too—the makeup piece is awesome. “That’s what they’re supposed to look like.” Out…

Nine states can claim only one high school first-rounder. See the full list of players and states at right. Three of those nine states—Idaho, Iowa and Nebraska—have preps ranked in or near the top 50 for this year’s draft. Here are the top contenders to double their states’ firstround representation, along with prospect ranking for the draft: ■ Nebraska: shortstop Tyson Lewis (#43) ■ Idaho: righthander Dax Whitney (#46) ■ Iowa: righthander Joey Oakie (#51) Hawaii Kodi Medeiros, LHP, Waiakea High (2018) Idaho Mike Garman, RHP, Caldwell High (1967) Iowa Bill Burbach, RHP, Wahlert Catholic High in Dubuque (1969) Maine Mark Rogers, RHP, Mount Ararat School in Topsham (2004) Montana Les Rohr, LHP, Billings West High (1965) Nebraska Jim Haller, RHP, Creighton Prep in Omaha (1970) New Hampshire Chris Carpenter,…

HUNTER CARNS, C FIRST COAST HS JACKSONVILLE, FL Carns has an atypical high school catcher profile thanks to his standout athleticism and speed that could also allow him to play outfield. He generates surprising power thanks to tremendous hand quickness and should be able to make up for the swing-and-miss in his game thanks to plenty of impact. BRYCE RAINER, MI HARVARD-WESTLAKE HS STUDIO CITY, CA The top prep shortstop in the class, Rainer has huge tools and turned in an excellent season in Southern California with prep powerhouse Harvard-Westlake. He projects for plus power and already has a 70-grade arm that is an asset on the left side of the infield. He has clean and reliable actions and glovework. PJ MORLANDO, CI SUMMERVILLE HS SUMMERVILLE, SC Morlando is the…

Sean Burroughs reached the pinnacle of his profession. First-round pick. Top prospect. Olympic gold medalist. Big leaguer. Burroughs’ fall from grace was just as pronounced. Out of baseball in his mid 20s, he moved to Las Vegas and fell into a years-long pattern of substance abuse, motel-hopping and paranoia. But Burroughs’ desire to play baseball helped him get his life back on track. Kevin Towers served as general manager when the Padres drafted Burroughs ninth overall in 1998 out of Long Beach’s Wilson High, the same school where his father Jeff had been drafted first overall in 1969. A dozen years later, Towers was instrumental in giving Burroughs a second chance, this time as GM of the D-backs. Towers signed Burroughs in November 2010. Burroughs did not play in 2008,…

Typically, being drafted early in the first round of leads to outsized expectations. But for SoCal high school catcher Mike Lieberthal, the third overall pick of the Phillies in 1990, it led to undersized doubt. “I was 155 pounds when I was drafted, so I was a tiny, little catcher,” Liberthal said. “When I went out to the minor leagues, everyone was like, ‘This was our (first-round) pick? This is a joke.’” Despite Lieberthal’s slight build, the Phillies had faith that the strong-armed and sure-handed backstop would develop into a big league catcher, but even the best defenders have to at least hold their own at the dish. After his first pro summer in the Rookie-level Appalachian League, which saw him hit just .228 with four home runs, Lieberthal had…

In what was all but certain to be his final college at-bat, Georgia’s Charlie Condon lined a ball over the right field fence for his 37th home run of the season. Charlie Condon’s 1.009 Even in college baseball’s era of big flies, Charlie Condon’s big season stands out USCLE by JJ COOPER Condon’s ability to hit for a high average at the same time is truly remarkable. Five” conference—Nebraska’s Ken Harvey in 1999, Florida State’s Buster Posey in 2008, It was an exclamation point on an exceptional season. Condon’s 37 homers were easily the most hit by any Division I hitter in the 21st century. It was a total higher than any player had reached since 1997, the height of “Gorilla Ball,” and the most by anyone since the NCAA eliminated “drop…

Collegians dominate the top of this year’s draft ranking, especially position players. This college hitter surplus will be a theme in the first round, especially in the early stages. In fact, this year’s draft class has a chance to tie the record for the most college position players selected with top 10 overall picks. That record is six college hitters drafted among the top 10. It happened previously in 1985, 2018 and 2019. 1985 1. BJ Surhoff, C, North Carolina 2. Will Clark, 1B, Mississippi State 4. Barry Larkin, SS, Michigan 6. Barry Bonds, OF, Arizona State 8. Pete Incaviglia, OF, Oklahoma State 10. Chris Gwynn, OF, San Diego State 2018 2. Joey Bart, C, Georgia Tech 3. Alec Bohm, 3B, Wichita State 4. Nick Madrigal, SS, Oregon State 5.…

College hitters are popular in the first round. Most of them have proven their mettle in a high-pressure environment. They have authenticated their hitting chops with wood bats while playing for Team USA or in the Cape Cod League. Despite this, no draft in history has begun with more than two consecutive college hitters being selected. The most college hitters selected to lead off a draft is two—and it has happened just three times in the first 59 drafts. 1985 1. Brewers: BJ Surhoff, C, North Carolina 2. Giants: Will Clark, 1B, Mississippi State 2015 1. Dansby Swanson, SS, Vanderbilt 2: Alex Bregman, SS, Louisiana State 2020 1: Spencer Torkelson, 3B, Arizona State 2: Heston Kjerstad, OF, Arkansas The 1985 draft class is arguably the best ever, highlighted by Barry…

WALKER JANEK, C SAM HOUSTON STATE Perhaps the most well-rounded catcher in college baseball this year, Janek enjoyed a career year in which he hit .364/.476/.709 with 15 doubles, a careerhigh 17 home runs and 58 RBIs. On top of his offensive prowess, Janek has an advanced defensive skill set behind the dish with a plus arm. He could be the first catcher drafted this year. CHARLIE CONDON, 3B GEORGIA Condon has put together one of the best seasons in recent memory. His .436 average and 36 home runs both lead the nation, and his homer total is a BBCOR record. Condon has an advanced feel to hit, which makes him a tough at-bat for opposing pitchers to navigate. He is also a strong contender to be drafted first overall.…

The Astros found a keeper in 18th-rounder Derek True, a righthander who has added velocity since signing last year. PAGE 76 Etzel Blazes Trail For Late-Round Picks The Orioles’ recent player development success has been defined by the aptitude of their high draft picks. Outfielder Matthew Etzel might end up blazing the trail for the late-round selections. The Orioles drafted him in the 10th round last year out of Southern Mississippi. He has done nothing but hit since signing. Etzel hit .307/.379/.479 with four home runs and 31 stolen bases in 51 games for High-A Aberdeen. The Orioles promoted him to Double-A Bowie on June 11. “The hit tool itself is really elite,” Aberdeen hitting coach Zach Cole said. “He’s just really good at finding the barrel on any pitch…

It’s Game 5 of the 2024 American League Championship Series. The Guardians trail the Yankees three games to one in the best-of-seven series. Trailing by a run in the sixth inning with a runner on, Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt is looking for a spark. So he calls on pinch-hitter Charlie Condon, just four months after he was playing in an NCAA super regional. Or maybe it’s Travis Bazzana stepping to the plate. Or J.J. Wetherholt. Crazy? Maybe not. The Rangers discussed adding 2023 draftee Wyatt Langford to their World Series roster last fall when Adolis Garcia went down with an injury. The Angels called up Nolan Schanuel to become their everyday first baseman last August, just 40 days after he was drafted. Langford, Schanuel, Pirates righthander Paul Skenes and Braves…